Retirement Data: Vanguard How America Saves

The following is from Vanguard's press release:

The 18th edition of How America Saves delivers a comprehensive analysis of the retirement savings behavior of 5 million participants in about 1,900 defined contribution (DC) retirement plans for which Vanguard provides recordkeeping services. Our data-rich report examines trends in how participants accumulate, manage, and access retirement savings.

2019 edition highlights

• 6 of 10 Vanguard participants were invested in a professionally managed allocation at year-end 2018. The growing use of target-date funds continues to drive this trend. 

June Market Update - Caution Mode

The S&P 500 finished May with a monthly loss of 6.58%. It ended the month at 2,752.06. Are you wondering what the mood in the market is at the beginning of June? Sovereign bond markets have your answer. In the U.S., the 10-year treasury yield dropped from 2.503% May 1 to 2.13% May 31. During the same period, the German 10-year moved from 0.016% to -0.20%. On May 24, Scott Minerd, Global Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Partners wrote, "We have seen how sensitive markets have been to the trade news. Sovereign bond yields around the world are sending an ominous message, which investors in risk assets ignore at great peril." Now, let's review price, sentiment, and valuation as we start June.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Q1 2019

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Source: Fidelity

Fidelity recently released their Q1 2019 Retirement Account Balances press release. I focus on these numbers because of Fidelity's size. They have $7.4 trillion in client assets, including more than 30 million retirement accounts. Here are a few items to highlight from their press release:

• As of Q1 2019, 52% of individuals had all of their 401(k) savings in a target date fund, compared with just 16% in Q1 2009. In addition, a much lower percentage of individuals had all of their 401(k) savings in stocks -- only 7% of individuals had an all-stock 401(k), compared with 15% who had an all-stock 401(k) allocation in Q1 2009.

EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey 2019

Now in its 29th year, the annual Retirement Confidence Survey(RCS) is the longest-running survey of its kind, measuring worker and retiree confidence about retirement. It is conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and independent research firm Greenwald & Associates. From the report: "The 2019 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) finds that two-thirds of American workers (67 percent) feel confident in their ability to retire comfortably, though only 23 percent feel very confident. The share of workers reporting that they feel either very or somewhat confident has increased compared with last year (67 percent vs. 64 percent in 2018). Worker confidence now resembles the levels measured in 2007 before the financial crisis of 2008."

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Source: EBRI, 2019 RCS Fact Sheet #4 Age Comparisons Among Workers

To learn more about this survey please visit the RCS website at EBRI.

To read more analysis about this survey read Richard Eisenberg's article Americans are confident about retirement. Are we kidding ourselves? at MarketWatch.

May Market Update - V-Shaped Recovery, Now What?

After gaining 13.07% in the first quarter of 2019, the S&P 500 started the second quarter increasing 3.93% in April. If you are interested in learning more about stock buybacks and their impact on the stock market since 2010, please read Chris Matthews, MarketWatch's Markets Reporter, article about corporate buybacks. Let's examine price, sentiment, and valuation for May.

April Market Update: 4, 3, 2, 1

The S&P 500 gained 1.79% in March and 13.07% for Q1 2019. The S&P 500 finished the month at 2,834.40; the change from 2,506.85 (12/31/2018 closing level) to 2,834.40 (3/29/2019 closing level) represents the best quarterly results for the S&P 500 since 2009 and best first quarter in 21 years, since 1998.  The U.S. growth cycle downturn continues after the U.S. growth cycle peaked in Q3 of 2018. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we prepare for the second quarter.

March Market Update - 138 Months

The S&P 500 gained 2.97% in February, ending the month at 2,784.49. Recent GDP forecasts, factoring in slowing economic data, show Q1 2019 GDP may decrease to around 1%. This macroeconomic environment creates difficult conditions for the S&P 500 to rise above the September 2018 record high of 2,940.91. I'll explain why I've titled this update "138 Months" in this month's summary. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we begin March 2019.