Saturday, March 14, 2020

European Banks - More Questions than Answers

Please click on graph above to enlarge
Source (with a more interactive graph): STOXX® Europe 600 Banks

This is a chart of the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index from January 1987 to March 2020. Curiously, in the last few days, we've seen this index hit levels it last reached in the 1987 to 1988 time period.
As European bank stocks were falling, Neil Irwin wrote an article for The NY Times on March 12, 2020 titled Something Weird Is Happening on Wall Street, and Not Just the Stock Sell-Off. He wrote in his piece:
"Underneath the headline numbers were a series of movements that don’t really make sense when lined up against one another. They amount to signs — not definitive, but worrying — that something is breaking down in the workings of the financial system, even if it’s not totally clear what that is just yet."

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

March Market Update - Watch the C Suite

The S&P 500 lost -8.41% in February. The spread of the coronavirus --COVID-19-- accelerated supply chain disruptions (started with tariffs), caused demand shocks in multiple industries, and in general, slowed the entire global economy during (or pulling forward) a window of economic vulnerability.  Let's dig into price, sentiment and valuation as we start March.