December Market Update - Kick the Can

The S&P 500 gained 1.79% in November, ending at 2,760.17. YTD the S&P 500 is up 3.24%. This positive monthly result owes much thanks to Fed Chairman Powell for insinuating the Fed might limit the number of rate increases in 2019 as well as the United States and China agreeing to work on improving trade relations. The deal announced in Buenos Aires allows for a 90-day break on new tariffs to work on negotiating a new trade deal. This includes delaying U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods until March 1, 2019. U.S. tariffs were set to increase from 10% to 25% on January 1, 2019. These perceived market positives helped lift the S&P 500 up 4.85% in the last week of November. Joining US equities, foreign stocks as represented by Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF, symbol VEU, gained 1.47% in November. Moreover, emerging markets as represented by iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, symbol EEM, increased 4.90% in November. Commodities and oil in particular were the biggest losers in November. Oil, as represented by United States Oil Fund, LP (symbol USO), dropped -22.19%. Let's dig deeper into price, sentiment and valuation as we start December.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Q3 2018, Record High Balances

Please click on the above chart to enlarge.
Source: Fidelity

Fidelity released their retirement balances data this week and Fidelity highlighted the following:

• Number of 401(k) Millionaires Increase 40 Percent from Q3 2017


• Contribution Rates for Women Reach Record Levels, at 8.5%


• Average 401(k) Balance for Millennials Saving for Five Years Straight Tops $80,000 

November 2018 Market Update - Choppy Waters

The S&P 500 lost 6.96% in October, ending the month at 2,711.74. YTD the S&P 500 is now up 1.43%. I'll keep our intro brief today, so we can spend more time reviewing price, sentiment and valuation as we start November.

October 2018 Market Update

The S&P 500 increased 0.43% in September. Moreover, the Q3 2018 gain of 7.2% ranked as the best quarterly price appreciation for the S&P 500 since Q4 2013 (when it gained 9.92%). Through the last trading day of September the S&P 500 is now up 8.99% for 2018. This represents quite a reversal for the S&P 500 which had YTD returns of -0.96% at the end of April. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we start October.

September 2018 Market Update - Global "Decoupling" Continues

The S&P 500 increased 3.03% in August. A strong showing for the S&P following a 3.6% advance in July. Certainly this represents a prosperous start to the second half of 2018 as the S&P 500 touches new record highs. While domestic markets have been accelerating to the upside, foreign stocks have struggled. YTD Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF Shares, VEU, declined -3.42% and have dropped in value 5 out of the first 8 months of 2018. Emerging markets, as represented by ETF EEM, reported a decline of -3.77% in August with YTD returns, as of the end of August, dropping -7.78%. Without further adieu let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we start September.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Q2 2018

Please click on the above chart to enlarge. From Fidelity's press release:

• Average individual 401(k), 403(b) and IRA account balances bounce back from dip in Q1, show solid year-over-year growth. The average 401(k) balance increased to $104,000, just under the all-time high balance of $104,300 from Q4 2017. The average balance represents a one percent increase from last quarter and a six percent increase from one year ago. The average IRA balance increased to $106,900, almost a two percent increase from last quarter and almost a seven percent increase from Q2 2017. The average 403(b) account was $83,400, almost a two percent increase from Q1 2017 and a five percent increase year-over-year.

August 2018 Market Update - Keep Perspective

This market update will not follow our normal format due to my travel schedule in August. I will have price, sentiment, and valuation updates again with the September market update. Instead this update will focus on the top 5 articles I've read in July to help us keep perspective as we transition into the second half of the year. If you want to read a review of July's market and a review of what could present itself this August read Ryan Vlastelica's MarketWatch article: After a Strong July, August looks Ominous for Stocks.

Retirement Data: 18th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey

Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies (TRCS) published their 18th annual survey results at the end of June. Here are some highlights quoted from their press release and their research:

• American workers’ total household retirement savings have grown to $71,000 (estimated median) in 2017, up from $53,000 in 2013. Baby Boomer workers, the generation that is currently entering retirement, have saved $164,000 (estimated median) in all household retirement accounts, up from $103,000 in 2013.

July 2018 Market Update - Foreign Shares Lose Ground

The S&P 500 was up 0.48% in June. After falling 1.18% in Q1 of 2018 the S&P 500 increased 2.88% in Q2 2018. YTD through the end of June the S&P 500 is up 1.67%. The YTD gains are thanks to a rally in only two sectors: technology and consumer discretionary. Moreover, Amazon.com, a component of the consumer discretionary sector, has accounted for 34.6% of all the S&P 500 gains for the first six months of the year. Amazon.com has increased over 45% since the start of the year. Foreign investing continued to sour during June with the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index ETF, VEU, down 2.14%. VEU(price) enters July with negative YTD returns, measuring -3.88%. It's time to review price, sentiment and valuation as we start July.

Retirement Data: Vanguard How America Saves

In June, Vanguard released their report How America Saves 2018. Highlights from the report include:

• "In 2017, the average account balance for Vanguard participants was $103,866; the median balance was $26,331. In 2017, Vanguard participants’ average account balances rose by 8% compared with 2016 and median account balances rose by 7%. Two factors are driving the changes in participant account balances. The first is a changing business mix—new plans converting to Vanguard recently have had lower account balances. The second is the rising adoption of automatic enrollment, which results in more individuals saving, but also a growing number of smaller balances." 

June 2018 Market Update

The S&P 500 was up 2.16% in May. YTD through the end of May the S&P 500 is up 1.18%. A couple markets to highlight before we review price, sentiment and valuation. First, technology stocks continue to significantly outperform the market with an incredibly strong performance in May. The Technology Select SPDR ETF, XLK, is up 9.65% YTD through the end of May.  Moreover, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF, RYT,  is up 11.13% YTD.  On the flip side, foreign investing soured during the month with the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index ETF, VEU, down 1.99%. VEU enters June with slightly negative returns for 2018. Now let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we start June.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Q1 2018

Please click on the above chart to enlarge. From Fidelity's press release:

• Average individual 401(k), 403(b) and IRA account balances increased year-over- year, but dipped slightly from Q4 2017. The average 401(k) balance dropped to $102,900, about 1 percent lower than Q4 2017 but an 8 percent increase from Q1 2017. The average IRA balance also dipped about 1 percent to $105,100 from last quarter, but increased 8 percent year-over-year. The average 403(b) account was $82,100, down slightly from Q4 2017 but up 9 percent year-over-year.

May 2018 Market Update - Election Cycle in Focus

The S&P 500 was up 0.22% in April. This marks a reversal from the negative returns in February and March. At the end of April, YTD the S&P was down 0.96%. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we begin the month of May.

April 2018 Market Update

The S&P 500 was down 2.64% in March. When we examine global securities via the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI, iShares ETF ACWI), which represents 85% of global investable equity market, it has snapped its streak of positive quarters at 9 with a loss in Q1 2018. This is the first quarterly loss since Q3 2015. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation for April.

March 2018 Market Update

The S&P 500 was down 3.89% in February. When we examine global securities via the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI, iShares ETF ACWI), which represents 85% of global investable equity market, it has snapped its record up streak at 15 months with a loss in February. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we enter March.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Average Six Figures at End of Q4 2017

Please click on the above chart to enlarge. From Fidelity's press release:

• IRA and 401(k) accounts continue to hit record levels. Increasing contributions and a strong stock market drove both the average 401(k) and IRA balances over six figures. The average 401(k) balance rose to $104,300, 13 percent higher than Q4 2016. The average IRA balance climbed to $106,000, which is also a 13 percent year-over-year increase. 

February 2018 Market Update - Volatility Returns

The S&P 500 was up 5.62% in January. When we examine global securities via the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI, iShares ETF ACWI), which represents 85% of the global investable equity market, it has been up a record 15 months in a row. After a surge in the stock market to start 2018, the S&P 500 finally experienced a 3% or greater correction (during the week on January 29-February 2). The last time investors encountered such weakness requires us to travel back in time to November 4, 2016, right before the U.S. Presidential election. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we enter February.

January 2018 Market Update - Bulls Rejoice

The S&P 500 was up 0.98% in December. When we examine global securities via the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI, iShares ETF ACWI), which represents 85% of the global investable equity market, it has been up a record 14 months in a row. The main story about the market in 2017 is the total lack of volatility. The S&P 500 has not had a 3% or greater correction since November 4, 2016. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we start 2018.