March Market Update - 138 Months

The S&P 500 gained 2.97% in February, ending the month at 2,784.49. Recent GDP forecasts, factoring in slowing economic data, show Q1 2019 GDP may decrease to around 1%. This macroeconomic environment creates difficult conditions for the S&P 500 to rise above the September 2018 record high of 2,940.91. I'll explain why I've titled this update "138 Months" in this month's summary. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we begin March 2019.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Q4 2018

Please click on chart above to enlarge.
Source: Fidelity

Fidelity recently released their Q4 2018 Retirement Account Balances press release. I focus on these numbers because of Fidelity's size. They have $6.7 trillion in client assets, including more than 30 million retirement accounts. Here are a few items to highlight from their press release:

• As of Q4, more than half (50.6 percent) of 401(k) savers are 100% invested in a target date fund.

February Market Update - Will This Month Determine Markets' Fate?

The S&P 500 gained 7.94% in January, ending at 2,704.10. This was the best start to a year for the S&P 500 since 1987. The signals for the market going into February may surprise you. The partial government shutdown has made it more challenging to determine the state of the U.S. economy. The 35-day partial U.S. shutdown delayed many important economic reports. Hopefully the shutdown doesn't resume February 15. Let's jump right into the details and review price, sentiment and valuation.

January Market Update - 2019, What will you bring?

The S&P 500 lost 9.18% in December, and lost 13.97% for Q4 2018. For 2018 the S&P 500 decreased 6.24% ending at 2,506.85. Looking at the NASDAQ Composite, which was formed in 1971, we notice that it had its worst December on record down 9.48%. For 2018, the NASDAQ Composite lost 3.88%. Many headlines in the business section of major news outlets will highlight that stocks had their worst year since 2008. Let's leave 2018 behind us and review price, sentiment, and valuation as we start 2019.

December Market Update - Kick the Can

The S&P 500 gained 1.79% in November, ending at 2,760.17. YTD the S&P 500 is up 3.24%. This positive monthly result owes much thanks to Fed Chairman Powell for insinuating the Fed might limit the number of rate increases in 2019 as well as the United States and China agreeing to work on improving trade relations. The deal announced in Buenos Aires allows for a 90-day break on new tariffs to work on negotiating a new trade deal. This includes delaying U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods until March 1, 2019. U.S. tariffs were set to increase from 10% to 25% on January 1, 2019. These perceived market positives helped lift the S&P 500 up 4.85% in the last week of November. Joining US equities, foreign stocks as represented by Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF, symbol VEU, gained 1.47% in November. Moreover, emerging markets as represented by iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, symbol EEM, increased 4.90% in November. Commodities and oil in particular were the biggest losers in November. Oil, as represented by United States Oil Fund, LP (symbol USO), dropped -22.19%. Let's dig deeper into price, sentiment and valuation as we start December.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Q3 2018, Record High Balances

Please click on the above chart to enlarge.
Source: Fidelity

Fidelity released their retirement balances data this week and Fidelity highlighted the following:

• Number of 401(k) Millionaires Increase 40 Percent from Q3 2017


• Contribution Rates for Women Reach Record Levels, at 8.5%


• Average 401(k) Balance for Millennials Saving for Five Years Straight Tops $80,000 

November 2018 Market Update - Choppy Waters

The S&P 500 lost 6.96% in October, ending the month at 2,711.74. YTD the S&P 500 is now up 1.43%. I'll keep our intro brief today, so we can spend more time reviewing price, sentiment and valuation as we start November.