February Market Update - Will This Month Determine Markets' Fate?

The S&P 500 gained 7.94% in January, ending at 2,704.10. This was the best start to a year for the S&P 500 since 1987. The signals for the market going into February may surprise you. The partial government shutdown has made it more challenging to determine the state of the U.S. economy. The 35-day partial U.S. shutdown delayed many important economic reports. Hopefully the shutdown doesn't resume February 15. Let's jump right into the details and review price, sentiment and valuation.

January Market Update - 2019, What will you bring?

The S&P 500 lost 9.18% in December, and lost 13.97% for Q4 2018. For 2018 the S&P 500 decreased 6.24% ending at 2,506.85. Looking at the NASDAQ Composite, which was formed in 1971, we notice that it had its worst December on record down 9.48%. For 2018, the NASDAQ Composite lost 3.88%. Many headlines in the business section of major news outlets will highlight that stocks had their worst year since 2008. Let's leave 2018 behind us and review price, sentiment, and valuation as we start 2019.

December Market Update - Kick the Can

The S&P 500 gained 1.79% in November, ending at 2,760.17. YTD the S&P 500 is up 3.24%. This positive monthly result owes much thanks to Fed Chairman Powell for insinuating the Fed might limit the number of rate increases in 2019 as well as the United States and China agreeing to work on improving trade relations. The deal announced in Buenos Aires allows for a 90-day break on new tariffs to work on negotiating a new trade deal. This includes delaying U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods until March 1, 2019. U.S. tariffs were set to increase from 10% to 25% on January 1, 2019. These perceived market positives helped lift the S&P 500 up 4.85% in the last week of November. Joining US equities, foreign stocks as represented by Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF, symbol VEU, gained 1.47% in November. Moreover, emerging markets as represented by iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, symbol EEM, increased 4.90% in November. Commodities and oil in particular were the biggest losers in November. Oil, as represented by United States Oil Fund, LP (symbol USO), dropped -22.19%. Let's dig deeper into price, sentiment and valuation as we start December.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Q3 2018, Record High Balances

Please click on the above chart to enlarge.
Source: Fidelity

Fidelity released their retirement balances data this week and Fidelity highlighted the following:

• Number of 401(k) Millionaires Increase 40 Percent from Q3 2017


• Contribution Rates for Women Reach Record Levels, at 8.5%


• Average 401(k) Balance for Millennials Saving for Five Years Straight Tops $80,000 

November 2018 Market Update - Choppy Waters

The S&P 500 lost 6.96% in October, ending the month at 2,711.74. YTD the S&P 500 is now up 1.43%. I'll keep our intro brief today, so we can spend more time reviewing price, sentiment and valuation as we start November.

October 2018 Market Update

The S&P 500 increased 0.43% in September. Moreover, the Q3 2018 gain of 7.2% ranked as the best quarterly price appreciation for the S&P 500 since Q4 2013 (when it gained 9.92%). Through the last trading day of September the S&P 500 is now up 8.99% for 2018. This represents quite a reversal for the S&P 500 which had YTD returns of -0.96% at the end of April. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we start October.

September 2018 Market Update - Global "Decoupling" Continues

The S&P 500 increased 3.03% in August. A strong showing for the S&P following a 3.6% advance in July. Certainly this represents a prosperous start to the second half of 2018 as the S&P 500 touches new record highs. While domestic markets have been accelerating to the upside, foreign stocks have struggled. YTD Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund ETF Shares, VEU, declined -3.42% and have dropped in value 5 out of the first 8 months of 2018. Emerging markets, as represented by ETF EEM, reported a decline of -3.77% in August with YTD returns, as of the end of August, dropping -7.78%. Without further adieu let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we start September.