European Banks - More Questions than Answers

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Source (with a more interactive graph): STOXX® Europe 600 Banks

This is a chart of the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index from January 1987 to March 2020. Curiously, in the last few days, we've seen this index hit levels it last reached in the 1987 to 1988 time period.
As European bank stocks were falling, Neil Irwin wrote an article for The NY Times on March 12, 2020 titled Something Weird Is Happening on Wall Street, and Not Just the Stock Sell-Off. He wrote in his piece:

"Underneath the headline numbers were a series of movements that don’t really make sense when lined up against one another. They amount to signs — not definitive, but worrying — that something is breaking down in the workings of the financial system, even if it’s not totally clear what that is just yet."

March Market Update - Watch the C Suite

The S&P 500 lost -8.41% in February. The spread of the coronavirus --COVID-19-- accelerated supply chain disruptions (started with tariffs), caused demand shocks in multiple industries, and in general, slowed the entire global economy during (or pulling forward) a window of economic vulnerability.  Let's dig into price, sentiment and valuation as we start March.

Retirement Data: Fidelity Plan Balances Q4 2019

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Source: Fidelity

From Fidelity's press release on February 13, 2020:

• Average 401(k), IRA and 403(b) balances increased to record levels. The average 401(k) balance rose to $112,300, a new record high and a 7% increase from last quarter’s balance of $105,200. The year-over-year average balance increased 17% from $95,600 in Q4 2018; the average IRA balance also rose to a record $115,400, a 5% increase from last quarter and 17% higher than the $98,400 balance one year ago. The average 403(b)/tax exempt account balance increased to $93,100, up 6% from last quarter and an increase of 18% from Q4 2018.

February Market Update - Novel Coronavirus

The S&P 500 lost 0.16% to start 2020. The first month of 2020 turned negative when China reported humans are suffering from the spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV. A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new coronavirus that has not been previously identified. It is a respiratory virus first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. To learn more about this virus and how halting its spread is impacting the economy read NY Times article, SARS Stung the Global Economy. The Coronavirus Is a Greater Menace. or BBC article, Coronavirus: The economic cost is rising in China and beyond. Bloomberg has an excellent article covering this topic, Charting the Global Economic Impact of the Coronavirus. Without further adieu, let's examine price, sentiment and valuation.

Retirement Data - Fidelity and Transamerica Retirement Updates

If you're wondering how American households are doing saving for retirement, please read two recent reports issued by Fidelity and Transamerica examining retirement preparedness in the United States. Transamerica published their findings from their 19th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey of Workers in December 2019 and Fidelity published their Retirement Savings Assessment in January 2020.

January Market Update - Commodities Rising

The S&P 500 gained 2.86% in December. For a summary of market returns for 2019, read Visual Capitalist's post How Every Asset Class, Currency, and Sector Performed in 2019.  After dropping significantly in October 2018, commodity prices have begun turning higher.  This increase and an upturn in inflation may be substantial economic themes for the first half of 2020. As I wrote in the March Market Update of 2019, the United States has never experienced 138 months of economic expansion. Remember, this is how long it will be if this economic expansion lasts until the U.S. presidential election in November. We know what increasing inflation and slowing growth means. Yes, stagflation season in the U.S. economy. Will it last for a couple of quarters and then reverse? Now let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we start 2020. Happy New Year!

December Market Update - Cycles Still Matter

The S&P 500 gained 3.4% in November. To further describe our current investment landscape Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, recently wrote, “Ever since the Federal Reserve reversed course and began easing policy, markets have enjoyed smooth sailing. It looks like it can last a while, since we don’t anticipate a shift in central bank policies any time soon. The problem is that market valuations become skewed in environments like this. Low interest rates and high liquidity encourage risk-taking and yield-seeking. Asset valuations become elevated and investors become complacent.” ECRI published an update November 19 titled Hard Data Still Decelerating. Lachman Achutan's news item is a must read for anyone studying the U.S. economy. Let's review price, sentiment and valuation as we start December.