Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The Great Rebound

Barry Ritholtz gives us a picture of how investors/traders are justifying this rally:

Link 1: Buoyant Market

Link 2: Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History

I take issue with the fact that returning to the pre-Lehman bailout level is a given. Assuming a 20% correction was the natural level for the market, was the market forecasting unemployment going to 9.8%? Is it just me or should the market be below the pre-Lehman level to adjust for the negative impact the Lehman bankruptcy had on the economy. The bigger challenge for investors who see a correction coming is trying to determine what pushes the market back down; until we know what will shift psychology this market countinues higher. At some point the technicals will reverse course and we will learn what level fundamental or value investors are willing to pay for this market. This is not 1982!

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